Sharp Leaderboard
Wallets ranked by repeatable skill, not bankroll or luck.
The tool runs at /sharps and needs a $49.99/mo membership. There is no free tier and no trial, so opening it signed out lands on the pricing page rather than the board. This page is the open documentation of what it does.
Public prediction-market leaderboards rank by total profit, which rewards two things that have nothing to do with skill: a large bankroll and good luck. The Sharp Leaderboard re-ranks the same public universe by Sharp Score, a one-to-ninety-nine rating that asks how much of a wallet's record looks repeatable.
The board covers four windows — twenty-four hours, weekly, monthly and all-time — and eleven categories, so a trader who is genuinely sharp in politics is not flattered by an unrelated run in sports or crypto. Every row maps to a real on-chain address you can open on Polymarket and check yourself.
What the Sharp Score is made of
Three inputs, blended and clamped to a one-to-ninety-nine scale centred at fifty. Profit counts, but through a saturating curve, so a wallet cannot buy its way to the top by risking more than everyone else. Return on volume — profit divided by dollars traded — asks how much edge the wallet extracts per dollar at risk, which puts a disciplined trader working a modest bankroll on equal footing with a whale. Hit rate against the prices paid is the third term and the hardest to fake: winning positions entered near 45¢ is skill, winning positions entered at 90¢ is paying for favourites.
The full formula is documented on the methodology page, including what is deliberately excluded. The score is a description of what a wallet has already done. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why only the top of the board carries a hit rate
Every row on the board gets profit, volume and a score from the leaderboard feed itself. Deeper enrichment — return on volume, hit rate, open position count, open value, unrealized and realized profit — requires reading each wallet's full position book, so it runs for the top sixteen rows rather than all fifty. Rows without it show a dash rather than a number nobody measured, and their score is computed from profit and efficiency alone.
Hit rate itself only appears once a wallet has at least five settled positions in the sample. Below that the number would be noise wearing a percentage sign.
The market-maker flag, and why it matters
A wallet with more than three million dollars of window volume and a return on volume inside plus-or-minus 0.8% gets flagged as market-maker-shaped. That pattern — enormous turnover, negligible edge per dollar — is what a maker or a rewards farmer looks like from the outside, and their profit is a rebate business rather than a directional read.
The flag is a heuristic, not a classification. It is shown on the row so you can decide, rather than quietly deleting wallets from the board.
From a ranked row to a shortlist
Each row carries a star. Starring a wallet adds it to your Watchlist, where the wallets you follow are read as one combined book. Sorting is available on score, profit, volume, return on volume and hit rate, so you can inspect the board from the angle you actually care about instead of accepting one ranking.
The right use is narrowing. The board's job is to take thousands of active wallets down to the handful with a defensible record, so the research you do afterwards is spent on traders who have earned the attention.
What it cannot tell you
Every tool has a boundary, and knowing where it sits is the difference between using one well and being misled by it. For Sharp Leaderboard:
- A row is an account, not a person. One trader can run several wallets and a wallet can be shared, so the board ranks addresses.
- It is Polymarket only. Kalshi has no public wallets, so no Kalshi trader appears on any leaderboard here, ever.
- It is backward-looking by construction. A genuinely skilled newcomer stays invisible until enough of their trades have settled, so the board always lags the newest talent.
- On-chain data cannot see hedges placed off-platform, so a wallet's apparent risk may not be its real risk.
- Windowed boards re-rank on that window's results. A short window flatters whoever just got hot, which is a feature for spotting form and a trap for judging skill.
- Market-maker detection is a volume-and-efficiency heuristic. It will miss some makers and occasionally flag a high-turnover directional trader.
What it is built on
- Polymarket data-api /v1/leaderboard, the same figures Polymarket's own profiles show, queried per window and category.
- Polymarket data-api /positions for the top rows, giving open value, unrealized and realized profit, and settled hit rate.
- Sharp Score v1 as implemented in lib/polymarket.ts and documented at /methodology.
Related reading
- Sharp Score: How to Find Skilled Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi — Guide
- Trader Risk Metrics: Reading Polymarket and Kalshi Leaderboards Beyond Raw PnL — Guide
- Master Wallet: Is Smart Money Winning on Polymarket and Kalshi Right Now? — Guide
- How to Copy Trade (Tail) Sharp Wallets on Polymarket — Strategy
- Building a Tail Portfolio: Following the Right Wallets — Strategy
Tools that pair with it
Large trades from scored wallets, streaming across both venues.
Traders whose week is beating their month.
The wallets you follow, and what they are holding.
WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Market data comes from Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold's public APIs; WhaleTracks is not affiliated with any of them. Past performance does not guarantee future results.