How to Trade Prediction Markets

A disciplined framework for tailing proven Polymarket wallets: rank them with the Sharp Score, catch their entries on the Live Feed and in browser alerts, size with rules, and read the flow as intelligence, not a signal to copy blind.

The Fade Board screens high-volume Polymarket wallets that are net down over the window you choose, and shows what they still hold. We tested the inverse of their settled trades and it came out negative, so this is a research screen and not an edge. Here is what it is honestly good for.

Lock cross-exchange spreads between Polymarket and Kalshi. How buying YES on one venue and NO on the other for under a dollar works, the fee and resolution-criteria traps that quietly eat the edge, and how to route every leg to the best price.

When several high-score sharp traders independently converge on one side of a market, the Smart Gap shows you where conviction is strongest. Here is how to read it, confirm it, size it, and know when it breaks.

Read the fresh-wallet, concentrated, oversized signature that informed capital leaves before a headline prints, verify it on-chain, and position with discipline.

Daily high-temperature ladders are one of the few prediction markets with a real number underneath them. Here is how the Weather Edge finder prices each bucket, what its model does not know, and how to trade a disagreement without over-trusting it.

A prediction market strategy for curating a small shortlist of wallets you actually understand, reading them as one book, and pruning the cold ones. Why five wallets you know beat fifty on a leaderboard.

The traders who last on Polymarket and Kalshi are rarely the ones with the sharpest reads. They are the ones who sized correctly, controlled variance, and never chased a loss. Here is how to build that discipline, and how the calculator does the arithmetic.