Sharp Consensus
Where tracked sharp capital leans, market by market.
The tool runs at /consensus and needs a $49.99/mo membership. There is no free tier and no trial, so opening it signed out lands on the pricing page rather than the board. This page is the open documentation of what it does.
One sharp wallet taking a side is an anecdote. Several high-scoring wallets independently holding the same side of the same market is the strongest single signal this product computes, and Sharp Consensus is the board that finds it.
The output per market is a Smart Gap between minus one and one: the capital-and-score-weighted balance between the leading outcome and everything else, alongside the raw counts of how many tracked wallets sit on each side.
How the Smart Gap is computed
The board starts from the leaderboard for your chosen window, takes the thirty highest Sharp Scores, and reads each of those wallets' open position books. Every holding is bucketed by market and outcome, and weighted by its dollar value multiplied by that wallet's Sharp Score — so a large position from a proven trader moves a row more than a small one from a middling account.
The Smart Gap is the leading outcome's weight minus everything else's, over the total. A row also reports how many distinct sharps are on the lean, how many are on any other side, the dollars on each side, and the highest-scoring wallet holding the lean.
What gets filtered out before the maths
Holdings worth less than two hundred dollars are ignored as dust, because a token crumb in a wallet's book is not a position anyone took deliberately. So are holdings in markets priced at two cents or below, or ninety-eight cents or above — those are effectively resolved and their weight would swamp genuinely contested markets.
Rows are then ranked by conviction rather than by size alone: the number of agreeing sharps, times the size of the gap, times the logarithm of the capital on the lean. That ordering deliberately promotes three sharps agreeing over one sharp with a big position.
Reading a row honestly
The counts matter as much as the gap. A gap near one with a single wallet on the lean means one trader is heavily positioned; the same gap with six wallets means six independent books arrived at the same answer. The page fetches the current price of the lean-side contract from Polymarket so you can see what the lean costs right now, which is usually the question that decides whether the signal is still actionable.
Windows are switchable — weekly, monthly, all-time — and they change which wallets qualify as sharp, not just how the rows are sorted.
Consensus flips
A separate panel compares the newest stored lean snapshot to the oldest one inside the last seven days and lists markets where the tracked lean has changed sides. A flip is a stronger event than a lean, because it means capital moved rather than simply sitting.
Flips need at least two stored snapshots inside the window, so on a young deployment the panel is empty until history accrues.
What it cannot tell you
Every tool has a boundary, and knowing where it sits is the difference between using one well and being misled by it. For Sharp Consensus:
- Polymarket only. Kalshi publishes no per-user positions, so no Kalshi market can appear on a consensus board anywhere.
- A lean is a snapshot of positions that are open now. It does not tell you when they were opened, at what price, or whether the wallet is already reducing.
- Sharps read the same news. Agreement is correlated behaviour, and correlated behaviour is not the same as private information.
- Weighting is by capital and score, so one very large wallet can carry a row on its own. The sharps-on-lean count is printed precisely so you can catch that.
- Wallets can be hedged off-platform. A position that looks like conviction here may be one leg of something neutral.
- The flips panel needs stored history. Empty is not the same as no flips.
What it is built on
- Polymarket data-api /v1/leaderboard for the tracked-sharp universe in the chosen window.
- Polymarket data-api /positions for each of the top thirty sharps, which is where the weighting comes from.
- Polymarket gamma, called from the page, for the current price of the lean-side contract.
- Stored consensus snapshots, for the flips panel.
Related reading
- Sharp Consensus (Smart Gap): Reading Where Sharp Money Leans on Polymarket and Kalshi — Guide
- Master Wallet: Is Smart Money Winning on Polymarket and Kalshi Right Now? — Guide
- Reading Sharp Consensus: How to Find High-Conviction Trades on Polymarket and Kalshi — Strategy
Tools that pair with it
Large trades from scored wallets, streaming across both venues.
Wallets ranked by repeatable skill, not bankroll or luck.
One market, every signal we hold on it, on one screen.
WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Market data comes from Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold's public APIs; WhaleTracks is not affiliated with any of them. Past performance does not guarantee future results.