Sharpe ratio

Average return divided by the standard deviation of returns — how much of a record is edge rather than variance.

Computed here from a wallet's settled Polymarket positions. Each closed position contributes one return — realised profit divided by the dollars put into it — and the Sharpe is the mean of those returns divided by their standard deviation.

Two deliberate constraints. It is only reported when there are at least ten settled positions and the returns actually vary; below that it is null rather than a number, because a Sharpe computed on four trades is noise with a decimal point attached, and publishing it would invite exactly the misreading the metric exists to prevent. And it is not annualised: these are per-trade units, not time-series units, so the figure is comparable between wallets on this site and is not comparable to a fund's annualised Sharpe. Do not put them side by side.

The reason to look at it at all is that raw profit hides everything. A large total with a low Sharpe almost always means one position carried the record, which tells you very little about what the next fifty trades will look like. Read it beside profit factor, maximum drawdown and the streak counters, and treat any single number as a prompt to look at the equity curve rather than a verdict.

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Definitions describe how Polymarket and Kalshi behave and how WhaleTracks models them; venue rules and fee schedules can change, so confirm anything you size a position on with the venue itself. WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.