Drawdown

Also called max drawdown · peak-to-trough

The decline from a peak to a later trough in a bankroll or track record.

Drawdown appears in two distinct places here, and they answer different questions.

On a wallet's record, maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough fall of the cumulative realised-profit curve built from that wallet's settled positions. The percentage version is measured against the running peak at the time of the trough rather than against the all-time peak, because the latter understates every dip that follows a recovery and flatters records that had one enormous early run.

On your own future, the sizing tool runs a Monte Carlo: thousands of paths of repeated identically-distributed trades at whatever stake fraction you have chosen, reporting the median ending bankroll, the fifth and ninety-fifth percentiles, the median worst drawdown across paths, and the probability that a path dips below half its starting value at any point. That last figure is usually the one that changes behaviour, because people size for the median and are ruined by the tail.

It is a simulation and is labeled as one. It fixes the stake fraction, ignores whole-contract rounding, and assumes the same trade is available every time. It is a way of feeling the shape of a sizing choice, not a forecast of your results.

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Definitions describe how Polymarket and Kalshi behave and how WhaleTracks models them; venue rules and fee schedules can change, so confirm anything you size a position on with the venue itself. WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.