Negative risk

Also called negRisk · neg risk

Polymarket's flag for a multi-outcome event where exactly one outcome resolves YES, enforced by its neg-risk adapter.

A Polymarket event flagged negRisk is one where the candidate list is exhaustive and exclusive: exactly one leg will resolve YES. The adapter that enforces it is also what the name refers to — it lets a trader hold NO across the set without posting collateral for a combination of outcomes that cannot occur, so the redundant risk is netted away.

For anyone scanning for locks, that invariant is the whole point, because it makes both full-set directions provable. Buy one YES of every leg and you spend the sum of the asks and collect exactly one dollar, since precisely one leg pays. Buy one NO of every leg and you collect exactly n − 1, since every NO wins except the winner's. The overround scanner therefore surfaces both directions on Polymarket rows and only the ALL-NO direction on Kalshi ones, whose mutual-exclusivity flag is the weaker guarantee.

Read practically, negRisk is the field that certifies a candidate list as complete. Without it, a sum of outcome prices below a dollar might simply mean the market has not listed the outcome that is going to win.

Where this shows up

Related terms

Definitions describe how Polymarket and Kalshi behave and how WhaleTracks models them; venue rules and fee schedules can change, so confirm anything you size a position on with the venue itself. WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.