Divergence

Also called price gap · cross-venue gap

The same real-world event carrying different prices on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment.

Matching two venues is the hard part, and it is done conservatively here: pairs come from a curated alias table anchored on specific Kalshi series, not from fuzzy title matching, because a confidently wrong pairing produces a precise number about two different questions.

Each pair reports three things. A gross gap taken from last trades, which is a signal about where attention is. An estimate of the round-trip fee cost of capturing it. And the net gap, which is the only figure treated as edge. Rows are also carried when the net gap is negative, because seeing which pairs are tightly aligned is itself information.

Divergence is not automatically arbitrage, and the difference is where most people lose money on it. A gap can be a genuine disagreement between two different populations of traders, in which case one of them is wrong and there may be a directional trade. Or it can be an artifact of the rules — the World Cup top-scorer pair is the standing example, where one venue's wording can resolve YES for every tied leader while the other breaks ties to a single winner. Pairs like that carry an explicit note and are never presented as a lock.

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Definitions describe how Polymarket and Kalshi behave and how WhaleTracks models them; venue rules and fee schedules can change, so confirm anything you size a position on with the venue itself. WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.