Closing line value

Also called CLV · beating the close

Whether the price you paid beat the market's price at the close — a fast, sample-efficient read on entry quality.

Outcomes are a slow teacher. A contract that was genuinely worth 60¢ loses forty percent of the time, so judging entries by whether they won takes hundreds of resolutions to say anything trustworthy. The closing price is faster, because it aggregates everything the market learned after you entered — including all the information you did not have.

So the question of whether you bought at 40¢ something that later closed at 55¢ is evidence about the quality of the entry regardless of how it resolved. It arrives on every trade rather than only on settled ones, which is why it is the standard yardstick anywhere prices are public and outcomes are noisy.

Where this site stands on it, stated honestly: there is no per-wallet CLV metric today. The Sharp Score is built from settled profit, return on capital, and hit rate against the prices paid, and entry-timing quality is named in the published methodology as a version-two addition rather than something already shipped. The closest thing running now is the forward-test board, which stores what was published and marks it forward from the day it printed — a forward record rather than a backtest, and one that needs stored snapshots and a cohort at least a day old before it shows anything at all.

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Definitions describe how Polymarket and Kalshi behave and how WhaleTracks models them; venue rules and fee schedules can change, so confirm anything you size a position on with the venue itself. WhaleTracks is informational analytics, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.